Scotland’s north‑eastern counties have been battered by an unbroken spell of wet weather since the first ten days of 2026, when a heavy snow event deposited up to 30 cm of snow across Aberdeenshire, Moray and the Highlands. The rapid transition from snow to rain, combined with saturated soils, has triggered a series of localized floods and transport disruptions that show no sign of abating.
From Snow‑Blanket to Water‑logged Ground
The initial snowfall was followed by a swift thaw as temperatures rose above freezing on 12 January. However, the ground remained frozen in many locations, preventing meltwater from infiltrating the soil. As a result, runoff accumulated in low‑lying areas, overwhelming drainage systems that had not yet recovered from the previous snow‑melt surge.
Continuous Rainfall Exacerbates the Situation
Since the thaw, the region has experienced an average of 15 mm of rain per day, with several days exceeding 30 mm. Under normal conditions, such amounts would be absorbed without incident. In the current scenario, the already saturated surface cannot accommodate additional precipitation, leading to rapid surface runoff, river level rises and flash‑flooding of roads, bridges and agricultural fields.
Impact on Communities and Infrastructure
Local authorities have reported:
- Road closures on the A96 and A95 due to water‑logged carriageways.
- Temporary suspension of rail services between Aberdeen and Inverness as tracks become submerged.
- Evacuations of households in the River Don catchment after water levels breached early‑warning thresholds.
- Disruption to livestock farming, with many farms unable to move animals to higher ground.
Emergency services have been stretched thin, responding to multiple incidents of stranded motorists and property damage.
Why the North‑East Is Particularly Vulnerable
Several factors converge to make the north‑east especially prone to prolonged flooding:
- Topography: The region’s steep valleys funnel water quickly into river systems.
- Soil composition: Predominantly peat and clay soils retain water and slow drainage.
- Climate pattern: A series of Atlantic low‑pressure systems have steered moist air northward, delivering successive rain bands with little inter‑storm dry period.
Expert Insight
Dr Eilidh MacLeod, climatologist at the University of Aberdeen, explained: “The early‑year snowpack acted like a sponge that was already saturated when the rain arrived. With the ground still frozen in places, meltwater could not percolate, so each new rain event adds to surface runoff rather than replenishing groundwater.” She added that climate models predict an increase in the frequency of such “compound events” – where extreme snowfall is quickly followed by heavy rain – across the UK.
What Comes Next?
Met Office forecasts indicate a brief lull in precipitation later this week, but temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, keeping the ground in a semi‑frozen state. Authorities are urging residents to stay vigilant, heed flood warnings and avoid non‑essential travel on vulnerable routes.
Preparedness Measures
In response to the ongoing crisis, the Scottish Government has allocated an additional £2 million for emergency flood relief, while local councils are accelerating the deployment of temporary flood barriers and sandbags. Residents are advised to register for real‑time alerts via the “Floodline” service and to keep emergency kits readily accessible.
