Moscow’s strategic calculus in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine appears to prioritize the ultimate objective of victory above all else, leading to a pragmatic and potentially transactional approach to its international alliances. This singular focus on Ukraine suggests that relationships with countries such as Iran and Venezuela are viewed primarily as means to achieve that end, rather than enduring partnerships.
Situational Alliances as Strategic Assets
The Kremlin’s engagement with regimes in Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea is increasingly being interpreted by analysts as a series of situational alliances, designed to serve Russia’s immediate geopolitical and military needs in its confrontation with Ukraine. These partnerships, while providing certain benefits, are perceived as ultimately expendable if they cease to contribute to Russia’s primary goal.
Iran’s Role in the Russian Strategy
Similar to the perceived expendability of Venezuela’s alliance, Iran’s role in supporting Russia’s war effort is also being scrutinized through this lens. While Iran has provided crucial military materiel, including drones, its long-term strategic value to Russia may be secondary to the immediate gains it offers in the Ukrainian theater. The ultimate authority, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is thus seen as operating within a framework dictated by Moscow’s overriding objective.
A Singular Chessboard: Ukraine
In contrast to the multifaceted foreign policy of figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is described as engaging on multiple fronts simultaneously, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen as intensely focused on a single “chessboard” – Ukraine. This singular dedication implies that any other international relationships are subordinate to the success of his campaign there, making allies potentially disposable if they hinder or fail to advance this paramount objective.
